It was 60 days ago that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
